NEWS
2027 Presidency: Tinubu Projected to Win 20 States, Atiku Nine, Obi Eight, According to Politico.ng
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been projected to emerge victorious in the 2027 presidential election, according to a political forecast released by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng.
The projection places the incumbent president significantly ahead of his two major challengers, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi.
Under the scenario presented by PIG, Tinubu is projected to win 20 states, while Atiku is expected to secure nine states and Obi eight states.
The forecast is based on the political circumstances currently prevailing across the country and does not represent a definitive prediction of the eventual election outcome.
PIG attributed Tinubu’s projected advantage partly to what it described as his administration’s perceived achievements in stabilising the economy and efforts to reposition the country.
The president is expected to retain overwhelming control of the South-West, with all six states in the region projected to fall into the All Progressives Congress column. Lagos, which has played a central role in Tinubu’s political career and remains a major electoral stronghold for the president, is also projected to remain firmly in his camp.
Perhaps more significantly, the forecast places Kano State in Tinubu’s column.
Kano’s inclusion could provide the president with an important foothold in Northern Nigeria. The state is one of the country’s largest electoral territories and has historically played a crucial role in determining the direction of presidential contests.
Despite Tinubu’s projected lead, PIG warned that the political landscape remains fluid and could undergo substantial changes before Nigerians cast their ballots in 2027.
Issues such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, infrastructure, petrol prices and the rising cost of living could have a major influence on voters.
The ability of the Tinubu administration to effectively communicate its policies and demonstrate tangible improvements in the lives of Nigerians could therefore become a central issue during the campaign.
Atiku Projected to Capture Nine States:-
Former Vice President and the ADC Presidential Candidate in the 2027 election, Atiku Abubakar is projected to win nine states in the forecast, with the former presidential candidate expected to maintain significant support in parts of Northern Nigeria.
PIG projects Atiku to retain influence in areas including Kaduna as well as parts of the North-East and North-West.
His extensive political network and experience from previous presidential campaigns could also strengthen his ability to mobilise voters and political structures across the country.
The former vice president’s position on fuel subsidy could emerge as another major campaign issue, particularly if Nigerians continue to grapple with high transportation costs and increasing household expenses.
Atiku has previously advocated a review of the existing fuel subsidy approach alongside measures aimed at easing the impact of petrol prices on Nigerians.
However, the subsidy question is likely to remain contentious, with competing arguments over government revenue, public expenditure and the long-term financial sustainability of subsidising petroleum products.
For Atiku to mount a serious challenge to Tinubu, his campaign may need to transform his northern support into substantial backing across other regions of the country.
Peter Obi Projected to Win Eight States:-
The NDC Presidential candidate, Mr. Peter Obi is projected to secure eight states, with the Federal Capital Territory and Edo State among the areas expected to favour him.
The forecast reflects the political base Obi established during the 2023 presidential election, when he recorded strong performances in several parts of the country.
Obi’s campaign is expected to continue emphasising political change, economic management, accountability, prudent public spending and efficiency in governance.
His biggest challenge, however, could be extending his influence beyond areas where he has traditionally enjoyed strong support.
The ability to build a broader national coalition and convert enthusiasm among his supporters into widespread electoral strength could prove crucial to his 2027 ambitions.
Political Alliances Could Upend Forecast:-
While the current projection puts Tinubu comfortably ahead, PIG stressed that the forecast should not be interpreted as the final outcome of the 2027 presidential election.
The projection reportedly considers a scenario in which the election is held in September under the political conditions currently prevailing, with the APC emerging victorious.
But Nigeria’s political landscape is rarely static:-
New alliances, defections, coalition arrangements, the selection of running mates and shifts in public sentiment could dramatically alter the current calculations before election day.
Economic developments could prove equally decisive. Persistent inflation, petrol prices, unemployment, insecurity and the broader cost-of-living crisis could influence voters’ attitudes toward the ruling party and the opposition.
Religion, ethnicity and regional interests may also feature prominently in political calculations, although economic conditions and perceptions of government performance could become equally powerful factors.
For now, the PIG projection gives Tinubu the strongest position, with 20 states, compared with nine for Atiku and eight for Obi.
But with the 2027 election still ahead, the forecast remains a snapshot of the current political terrain rather than a guarantee of what will happen when Nigerians ultimately head to the polls.