NEWS
Iran’s Missile Power Under Strain as Sharp Decline in Rockets Fired by Tehran Over 24 Hours Signals Possible Destruction of Launch Systems as US and Israel Intensify Strikes
Iran appears to be losing its ability to launch large-scale missile salvos in retaliation against the United States and Israel, as the number of rockets fired by Tehran within a 24-hour period has dropped dramatically amid ongoing military strikes.
Recent analysis released by countries currently under attack from the Islamic Republic indicates that Tehran has significantly reduced the number of ballistic missiles it is able to fire daily. The sharp decline has raised questions among defence analysts about whether Iran’s military infrastructure has been severely damaged.
Experts believe the sudden drop in missile launches may be linked to the destruction of key ground-based missile launch platforms used by the Iranian armed forces. These launch systems, known as transporter erector launchers (TEL), play a critical role in Iran’s missile deployment capability.
According to military observers, the destruction of these TEL units during United States airstrikes may have crippled Iran’s ability to sustain large waves of missile attacks.
At the start of the current conflict, Iran reportedly unleashed hundreds of missiles, surpassing the volume fired during the 12-day war with Israel that occurred in June of the previous year.
Before hostilities escalated, Iran was believed to possess substantial stockpiles of short-range ballistic missiles. Conservative estimates placed the arsenal at between 2,000 and 2,500 missiles, giving Tehran the theoretical capacity to sustain prolonged missile campaigns.
Since the beginning of the latest escalation on Saturday, Iran is estimated to have launched between 500 and 750 ballistic missiles. These missiles have primarily targeted Israel as well as several Gulf countries hosting American military bases.
Countries across the Gulf region, including the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, have been publishing daily reports documenting the number of Iranian missiles and drones launched toward their territories.
Initial figures showed a heavy barrage. During the first two days of the conflict, Iran fired an average of 58 ballistic missiles per day at the United Arab Emirates. However, by the fourth day of the conflict, the number had dropped sharply to just 10 missiles.
Defence analyst Colby Badhwar described the trend as the “preliminary evidence that Iran is running out of ballistic missiles”.
Other Gulf states have also reported interception operations against Iranian attacks.
Bahrain announced that its defence systems had successfully intercepted 70 missiles on Tuesday. By the following day, authorities said the total number of intercepted missiles had increased to 74.
Kuwait reported that its military had engaged a total of 97 ballistic missiles during the first 24 hours of the war. However, officials have not released updated figures in the days since.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s defence ministry confirmed that the country was targeted by two ballistic missiles on Wednesday. One of the missiles struck the Al-Udeid air base but did not cause any casualties.
The number of missiles launched toward Qatar was significantly lower than earlier in the conflict. On Monday, the Gulf state reported that seven ballistic missiles had been fired at its territory.
In total, Qatari authorities say the country has been targeted by at least 101 ballistic missiles since the conflict began, with most of the attacks occurring during the first two days of fighting.
United States military strategy during the conflict has focused heavily on dismantling Iran’s offensive strike capability by destroying its missile infrastructure.
American forces have reportedly carried out targeted operations against missile sites and launch equipment across Iranian territory, eliminating many of the TEL launch systems required for launching ballistic missiles.
Brad Cooper, the head of United States Central Command, outlined the objective of the operation during a military briefing, stating, “We’re focused on shooting everything that can shoot at us.”
Satellite imagery has also revealed extensive damage to key Iranian missile facilities. One of the most notable sites affected is located in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
The facility had previously suffered damage during American strikes in June during last year’s 12-day war but was partially rebuilt afterward. However, new satellite images show that the site was struck again between February 27 and March 1.
The missile facility is located roughly 270 miles south of Tehran, and the damage captured in before-and-after imagery suggests significant degradation of Iran’s missile infrastructure.
Fabian Hoffmann, a missile technology expert based in Oslo, commented on the situation on social media, noting that Iran’s reduced missile activity may indicate serious damage to its military capabilities.
“Given that the present conflict is far more existential from a regime perspective and that short-range ballistic missiles are viable, one would expect significantly greater ballistic missile use unless Iran’s missile and launcher capabilities have been heavily degraded – which evidently they are,” he wrote.
He added that concerns about the depletion of interceptor missiles among Gulf states may have been overstated given the sudden reduction in Iranian missile launches.
“Interceptor stockpile shortages were, and arguably remain, a valid concern, but only if Iran had been able to sustain the intensity observed during the first two nights, which it clearly has not. At present, with the possible exception of Bahrain, no Gulf state appears to be in a particularly alarming position.”
Despite the reduction in Iranian missile fire, reports suggest that the United States may also be facing logistical challenges as the conflict continues.
According to sources cited by the Wall Street Journal, American forces are rapidly depleting their own stockpiles of precision-guided weapons. Officials reportedly warned that the United States could soon be forced to prioritise which incoming threats to intercept if the pace of conflict continues.