NATIONAL DATA REPOSITORY REPORT REVEALS SHARP DECLINE IN HIV INFECTIONS AS LAGOS AND BENUE EMERGE HOTSPOTS, WITH YOUNG WOMEN BEARING DISPROPORTIONATE BURDEN

The National Data Repository has released its latest nationwide statistics, offering a comprehensive picture of HIV detection, treatment, and viral suppression across Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The report not only captures the current landscape but also provides a decade-long analysis of trends, alongside a detailed demographic breakdown of newly identified cases.

A major highlight of the report is the continued progress toward epidemic control, even as emerging patterns signal areas of concern. Lagos and Benue states have been identified as the dual epicentres of new infections, with data pointing to a troubling and persistent rise in vulnerability among young women.

Encouragingly, the country has recorded remarkable strides in awareness and treatment coverage.

According to the NDR, 95% of people living with HIV now know their status, reflecting the success of sustained national testing and awareness campaigns. Among those diagnosed, 95% are currently receiving treatment, with over 1.65 million patients actively managed across nearly 2,000 health facilities nationwide. Even more significant is the outcome of treatment adherence, as 95% of individuals on therapy have achieved viral suppression, a key indicator of effective HIV control and reduced transmission risk.

A closer look at the 10-year trend analysis reveals a dramatic shift in infection patterns. New HIV cases rose steadily from 228,014 in 2016 to a peak of 464,355 in 2020, before entering a sustained downward trajectory. By 2026, new cases had plummeted to 21,389, representing an extraordinary 90.8% reduction from the 111,513 recorded in 2025. This sharp decline, particularly within the last year, underscores the impact of intensified interventions, improved diagnostics, and expanded access to treatment.

Despite this progress, recent data from the past three months highlights a critical demographic concern. Young adults, especially females, account for the highest number of new infections. Women recorded significantly higher infection rates than men across nearly all age groups, with the disparity most pronounced among individuals aged 20 to 34. The lowest infection rates were observed among children aged 5 to 9, suggesting some success in pediatric prevention strategies.

State-by-state analysis further underscores regional disparities. Lagos leads with 2,342 newly confirmed cases within the last three months, followed by Benue with 1,956. Other high-burden states include Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and Anambra. In contrast, states such as Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara recorded the lowest number of new infections, reflecting uneven distribution across the country.

Regional aggregation of the data shows the South West recording the highest number of new cases, driven largely by Lagos, while the South South follows closely behind. The South East and northern regions present moderate figures, though variations within states remain significant. The Federal Capital Territory also reported a notable number of cases, reinforcing its position as a key area of focus.

In terms of treatment coverage, the South South region leads the country, closely followed by the South West, indicating stronger healthcare access and program implementation in these areas. Conversely, the North West continues to lag behind, pointing to gaps in healthcare delivery and access that may require urgent policy attention.

Overall, the NDR report paints a picture of significant national progress toward achieving the global 95-95-95 HIV targets.

However, it also serves as a critical reminder that the fight against HIV is far from over. The disproportionately higher infection rates among women, particularly young women, alongside state-specific spikes, highlight the need for more targeted, data-driven interventions.

Public health experts emphasize that sustaining the gains recorded will depend on deepening community-level engagement, expanding gender-sensitive prevention strategies, and strengthening healthcare systems in underserved regions.